在剛(gang)剛(gang)頒布(bu)的(de)(de)《國務院關于化(hua)(hua)解(jie)產能(neng)嚴重過剩矛盾的(de)(de)指導意見》以下簡稱(cheng)《指導意見》的(de)(de)基礎上(shang),我們認為應加強(qiang)政策(ce)執行與(yu)配(pei)套,進一步壓(ya)供拓需(xu),從供需(xu)兩(liang)方面完善政策(ce),努力化(hua)(hua)解(jie)電解(jie)鋁產能(neng)過剩。具體有以下幾點建(jian)議。

　　在供給側,建議多策(ce)并舉(ju)嚴格壓縮電(dian)解鋁產能,尤其應(ying)加快推進電(dian)價改革,打消產能快速擴張(zhang)的沖動。

　　其一,應嚴格(ge)執行《指(zhi)導意(yi)見》,“嚴禁建(jian)設新(xin)增產(chan)(chan)能項目”、“分類妥(tuo)善處(chu)理(li)在建(jian)違規(gui)項目”、“清理(li)整頓建(jian)成違規(gui)產(chan)(chan)能”、“淘(tao)汰和(he)退出落后(hou)產(chan)(chan)能”,建(jian)議可對違規(gui)建(jian)設產(chan)(chan)能收取罰金,以建(jian)立(li)淘(tao)汰落后(hou)產(chan)(chan)能基(ji)金,并針對產(chan)(chan)能淘(tao)汰和(he)退出在財政補貼、企業轉產(chan)(chan)、職(zhi)工安置等(deng)方面出臺具體扶持(chi)政策。

　　其(qi)二(er),切實(shi)(shi)消除政(zheng)策性障礙,落實(shi)(shi)好“整合一(yi)(yi)批”,推(tui)進(jin)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)兼(jian)并重(zhong)組(zu)(zu),具(ju)體而(er)言:建議在證監會《并購(gou)重(zhong)組(zu)(zu)審核(he)分(fen)道(dao)制實(shi)(shi)施(shi)方案》對(dui)電(dian)(dian)解鋁等(deng)九個推(tui)進(jin)兼(jian)并重(zhong)組(zu)(zu)重(zhong)點行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)進(jin)入(ru)快速豁免(mian)/快速審核(he)通(tong)道(dao)的(de)(de)(de)基(ji)礎(chu)上(shang),進(jin)一(yi)(yi)步研究(jiu)并降低同行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)上(shang)市公司(si)兼(jian)并重(zhong)組(zu)(zu)的(de)(de)(de)成本;建議調整電(dian)(dian)力政(zheng)策,允許龍(long)頭(tou)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)建設或吸收的(de)(de)(de)現有(you)發電(dian)(dian)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)為其(qi)電(dian)(dian)解鋁生產提供廉價電(dian)(dian)力供應;建議在金融、稅費等(deng)方面加大(da)支持力度,鼓勵龍(long)頭(tou)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)作為整合主體,切實(shi)(shi)推(tui)進(jin)跨(kua)地(di)區、跨(kua)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)、跨(kua)所有(you)制的(de)(de)(de)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)重(zhong)組(zu)(zu)。

　　其三,均衡區(qu)域(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia),加快電(dian)(dian)(dian)力體(ti)制改革,消除暴利預期(qi)(qi)(qi)。雖然從(cong)長遠看,電(dian)(dian)(dian)解鋁等(deng)(deng)(deng)高(gao)耗能(neng)行(xing)業(ye)有向新疆等(deng)(deng)(deng)能(neng)源豐富的(de)西部(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)大(da)面(mian)積轉(zhuan)移的(de)趨勢與(yu)必要(yao),但(dan)從(cong)中(zhong)短期(qi)(qi)(qi)看,產(chan)(chan)能(neng)在(zai)區(qu)域(yu)間的(de)完全(quan)轉(zhuan)移需要(yao)有一(yi)(yi)個漸進(jin)的(de)過(guo)程(cheng),且考慮到運輸能(neng)力和資(zi)源環境因(yin)素,新疆等(deng)(deng)(deng)西部(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)僅僅因(yin)為優惠(hui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)而造成(cheng)的(de)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)擴張也不(bu)宜突(tu)飛(fei)猛(meng)進(jin)。因(yin)此,建議采取措施均衡區(qu)域(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia),加快推進(jin)國(guo)家電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)體(ti)制改革,比如可在(zai)全(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)解鋁行(xing)業(ye)率先試點,在(zai)全(quan)國(guo)范圍內(nei)統(tong)一(yi)(yi)并網(wang)(wang)服務(wu)費至1分錢(qian)到3分錢(qian),或者允許各地(di)(di)建設(she)行(xing)業(ye)內(nei)區(qu)域(yu)輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)絡,以(yi)消除政策原(yuan)因(yin)造成(cheng)的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)不(bu)平等(deng)(deng)(deng),打(da)消相關企業(ye)在(zai)新疆等(deng)(deng)(deng)西部(bu)地(di)(di)區(qu)獲(huo)得(de)超額利潤的(de)預期(qi)(qi)(qi),從(cong)而抑制產(chan)(chan)能(neng)投資(zi)沖動(dong),使企業(ye)主動(dong)停(ting)止(zhi)新建產(chan)(chan)能(neng)。

　　在需(xu)求側(ce),基于當前(qian)外需(xu)不振、貿易摩擦升級的(de)(de)(de)現實情況,建議(yi)通過收(shou)儲、拓寬(kuan)應用范(fan)(fan)圍等手段加(jia)大(da)(da)鋁(lv)的(de)(de)(de)國內需(xu)求,切實“消化(hua)(hua)一(yi)(yi)批”,并通過技術(shu)創新(xin)提高(gao)鋁(lv)材(cai)的(de)(de)(de)加(jia)工(gong)層次,獲(huo)取更(geng)高(gao)收(shou)益(yi)。一(yi)(yi)是要適當增加(jia)國家(jia)對鋁(lv)的(de)(de)(de)儲備。國家(jia)在當前(qian)鋁(lv)價創兩年(nian)來新(xin)低的(de)(de)(de)情況下擴大(da)(da)收(shou)儲規模(mo),不僅有(you)利于消化(hua)(hua)一(yi)(yi)部分產能,促進資產保值增值,也能夠樹(shu)立市(shi)場信(xin)心。二是要加(jia)大(da)(da)研發(fa)及財稅(shui)支持,積極(ji)拓寬(kuan)鋁(lv)的(de)(de)(de)應用范(fan)(fan)圍。三是要積極(ji)努力通過技術(shu)攻關與創新(xin),提高(gao)我國鋁(lv)材(cai)的(de)(de)(de)加(jia)工(gong)層次,獲(huo)取更(geng)高(gao)收(shou)益(yi)。

　　經過調研,我國電解鋁行業(ye)產(chan)能過剩的背后(hou)有著較為(wei)深刻的技術(shu)、經濟、體制(zhi)等(deng)多(duo)方(fang)面原因(yin)(yin),其中體制(zhi)原因(yin)(yin)尤其成為(wei)近年來吸引眾多(duo)電力企業(ye)、民營企業(ye)如希望集團、山東(dong)信發(fa)、山東(dong)魏橋等(deng)進(jin)入電解鋁行業(ye)并不斷新建產(chan)能的主要原因(yin)(yin)。

　　再(zai)次(ci),地(di)(di)(di)方(fang)政(zheng)府的(de)(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)績沖動(dong)與我(wo)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)政(zheng)策的(de)(de)(de)(de)區域不平衡等(deng)體制原因,更(geng)成為(wei)(wei)近年來電(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)迅猛增(zeng)長的(de)(de)(de)(de)主要(yao)原因。經過多(duo)年的(de)(de)(de)(de)發展,我(wo)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)行業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)技術壁壘已大幅降低,而高資(zi)本投(tou)入、產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)投(tou)建較快以(yi)及下游需(xu)求廣泛、對(dui)GDP拉(la)動(dong)作用強的(de)(de)(de)(de)特點,卻使(shi)其成為(wei)(wei)地(di)(di)(di)方(fang)政(zheng)府拉(la)動(dong)GDP、解(jie)(jie)決(jue)就業(ye)較好的(de)(de)(de)(de)抓手。各地(di)(di)(di)政(zheng)府在(zai)過去(qu)十年間(jian)電(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)需(xu)求旺(wang)盛的(de)(de)(de)(de)情(qing)況下具(ju)有極強的(de)(de)(de)(de)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)投(tou)建和優惠補貼(tie)的(de)(de)(de)(de)沖動(dong),在(zai)局部利益驅動(dong)下大干快上,在(zai)招商(shang)引資(zi)中往往給予土地(di)(di)(di)、稅(shui)收、優惠電(dian)(dian)價(jia)等(deng)政(zheng)策支(zhi)持,幫助企業(ye)報批甚至(zhi)“先建再(zai)報批”等(deng)現象也屢見(jian)不鮮,使(shi)得電(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)行業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)新增(zeng)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)持續增(zeng)長。更(geng)為(wei)(wei)重要(yao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)是,2010年以(yi)來國(guo)(guo)家(jia)取消(xiao)優惠電(dian)(dian)價(jia)和加快西(xi)部大開發的(de)(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)策相繼出臺,在(zai)現有電(dian)(dian)力體制下,新疆(jiang)等(deng)西(xi)部省(sheng)份(fen)的(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)優勢凸顯,刺激了我(wo)國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)在(zai)西(xi)部地(di)(di)(di)區的(de)(de)(de)(de)爆炸性增(zeng)長,僅新疆(jiang)一(yi)省(sheng)就新增(zeng)了一(yi)個全國(guo)(guo)產(chan)(chan)量。

　　用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)是(shi)(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)最大成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben),占到總成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)40%—50%,電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)增(zeng)加(jia)1分(fen)(fen)錢,每噸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)直接(jie)(jie)增(zeng)加(jia)140元—145元;而(er)(er)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)相對成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)熟使(shi)得(de)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)進(jin)步與(yu)管理改善對成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)下降的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響不(bu)(bu)(bu)大,從而(er)(er)使(shi)得(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)為(wei)(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)發展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)決定性(xing)因(yin)(yin)素,電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)差異就(jiu)直接(jie)(jie)影(ying)響了(le)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)生(sheng)死存亡與(yu)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)布局(ju)。目(mu)前(qian),我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)格基(ji)(ji)本(ben)呈現(xian)出四個(ge)(ge)檔(dang)次。第一(yi)檔(dang),使(shi)用(yong)(yong)網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian),在河(he)南(nan)(nan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)為(wei)(wei)0.64元/度,這樣(yang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)已經(jing)沒有生(sheng)存空(kong)間(jian),中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)東(dong)部地區使(shi)用(yong)(yong)網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)紛紛停(ting)產(chan)(chan)(chan)或關(guan)閉,如(ru)(ru)河(he)南(nan)(nan)林豐鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)業(ye)(ye)(ye)公司(si)技(ji)術(shu)(shu)與(yu)設備(bei)(bei)雖(sui)然先(xian)進(jin),但用(yong)(yong)網電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)太(tai)高(gao),不(bu)(bu)(bu)得(de)不(bu)(bu)(bu)停(ting)產(chan)(chan)(chan),上(shang)市公司(si)神火(huo)股份(fen)公司(si)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)沁(qin)奧鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)業(ye)(ye)(ye)從2012年5月起(qi)也(ye)(ye)一(yi)直處(chu)于關(guan)停(ting)狀態。第二檔(dang),使(shi)用(yong)(yong)直購(gou)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian),目(mu)前(qian)在河(he)南(nan)(nan)能(neng)降低電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)0.12元即0.52元/度,這種模式也(ye)(ye)不(bu)(bu)(bu)能(neng)保證企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)長(chang)久生(sheng)存,僅能(neng)減少虧損(sun)。第三(san)檔(dang),自備(bei)(bei)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)加(jia)較高(gao)并網費,如(ru)(ru)河(he)南(nan)(nan)省(sheng)每度自備(bei)(bei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)需向國(guo)家電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網交過網費8分(fen)(fen)錢,使(shi)得(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)大致是(shi)(shi)0.40元/度—0.46元/度,這類(lei)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)基(ji)(ji)本(ben)能(neng)做到微利或不(bu)(bu)(bu)虧損(sun)。第四檔(dang),自備(bei)(bei)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)不(bu)(bu)(bu)交并網費或只(zhi)交1分(fen)(fen)錢至3分(fen)(fen)錢并網費,這類(lei)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)目(mu)前(qian)主要集中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)在山東(dong)省(sheng)和西部地區,他們的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)新(xin)疆地區加(jia)上(shang)物流成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)并折算成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)能(neng)在0.36元/度,成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)為(wei)(wei)目(mu)前(qian)國(guo)內(nei)最有競(jing)爭力(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)力(li)。因(yin)(yin)此,不(bu)(bu)(bu)同(tong)地區由于電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)政策的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)差異使(shi)得(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)無(wu)論(lun)其技(ji)術(shu)(shu)與(yu)管理水(shui)平(ping)(ping)如(ru)(ru)何(he),而(er)(er)僅僅因(yin)(yin)為(wei)(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)不(bu)(bu)(bu)同(tong)就(jiu)處(chu)于一(yi)個(ge)(ge)完全不(bu)(bu)(bu)平(ping)(ping)等的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)競(jing)爭環境中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)。近年來新(xin)增(zeng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)大量電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng),基(ji)(ji)本(ben)上(shang)都是(shi)(shi)基(ji)(ji)于第四檔(dang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)所建(jian),也(ye)(ye)催生(sheng)了(le)由于煤炭資源豐富而(er)(er)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)價(jia)格異常便宜的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)新(xin)疆在電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)規劃產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)方面再(zai)造一(yi)個(ge)(ge)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)奇特現(xian)象。

　　最后(hou),在西部(bu)地區(qu)電(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁新增(zeng)產(chan)能(neng)(neng)大(da)(da)幅增(zeng)加(jia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)同時,中(zhong)東部(bu)地區(qu)原有(you)(you)的(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁產(chan)能(neng)(neng)退出緩慢,從而最終(zhong)造成了我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁總(zong)產(chan)能(neng)(neng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)(da)幅凈增(zeng)長。2011年(nian)之后(hou),中(zhong)東部(bu)地區(qu)由于市場(chang)煤(mei)價(jia)大(da)(da)幅下降導(dao)致有(you)(you)自備電(dian)(dian)廠(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁企(qi)(qi)業(ye)發電(dian)(dian)成本(ben)(ben)大(da)(da)幅度降低(di),地方政(zheng)府(fu)逐步認(ren)識到通(tong)過(guo)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)自身的(de)(de)(de)(de)努力,再借鑒山(shan)東的(de)(de)(de)(de)政(zheng)策經驗(yan)如(ru)電(dian)(dian)價(jia)中(zhong)繳納(na)較(jiao)低(di)的(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)網費,本(ben)(ben)地企(qi)(qi)業(ye)因(yin)為(wei)有(you)(you)區(qu)域優(you)勢,完全具備和西部(bu)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)競爭的(de)(de)(de)(de)可能(neng)(neng),就(jiu)加(jia)大(da)(da)了對企(qi)(qi)業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)渡(du)性支持和扶持政(zheng)策,中(zhong)東部(bu)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)僵而不(bu)死,使西部(bu)新投產(chan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)產(chan)能(neng)(neng)成為(wei)凈增(zeng)長,全國(guo)產(chan)能(neng)(neng)規模急劇擴張。

　　因此,當前我國(guo)電解鋁行業的(de)(de)(de)產(chan)能(neng)(neng)過剩(sheng),一方面(mian)是(shi)上(shang)述原因造成的(de)(de)(de)近年來電解鋁行業總體產(chan)能(neng)(neng)大幅增(zeng)加的(de)(de)(de)供給過剩(sheng),另一方面(mian)是(shi)我國(guo)經濟增(zeng)速近兩(liang)年逐步(bu)回落、進入增(zeng)長(chang)轉換期而(er)客觀造成的(de)(de)(de)需求不足,這兩(liang)者相疊加,再加上(shang)全(quan)球(qiu)電解鋁行業也(ye)面(mian)臨產(chan)能(neng)(neng)過剩(sheng)和需求不足的(de)(de)(de)問題,從而(er)使得目前我國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)電解鋁產(chan)能(neng)(neng)過剩(sheng)問題愈加突出。