統計局最新數據顯示，今年1-7月國電解鋁總產量為1248.75萬噸，累積同比增加8.5%。從下列圖我們也可以看出，近10年來，國電解鋁產量一直處于不斷攀升過程，使我國電解鋁供應持續過剩，這意味著，近年來國家對電解鋁行業產能調控仍無成效，而這給鋁價步伐帶來一定抑制影響。
　　近(jin)十年(nian)來，我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)增長(chang)迅速。統(tong)計數據顯示，2003年(nian)我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)554萬噸，至2012年(nian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)已達到(dao)2500萬噸。盡(jin)管國(guo)家(jia)限制(zhi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)政(zheng)策不斷(duan)，但政(zheng)策頻出(chu)難抑電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)擴(kuo)張(zhang)(zhang)過快，且(qie)地方(fang)政(zheng)府對于(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)投資力度依(yi)然(ran)不減，電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)正加(jia)(jia)速向(xiang)西部(bu)轉(zhuan)移，可以看到(dao)我國(guo)新增電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)來源(yuan)主要新疆、寧夏、甘肅(su)、青海、貴(gui)州等西部(bu)地區，產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)西進加(jia)(jia)劇過剩(sheng)隱憂。因此(ci)(ci)分析(xi)師(shi)認為，電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)鋁(lv)行業長(chang)期處于(yu)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)過剩(sheng)困境難以改(gai)變，新出(chu)臺行業規范長(chang)遠來看有利于(yu)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業升級產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)有序擴(kuo)張(zhang)(zhang)，但總產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)并不能(neng)(neng)得到(dao)遏制(zhi)。此(ci)(ci)外(wai)，西部(bu)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)逐(zhu)漸釋(shi)放，將(jiang)會(hui)加(jia)(jia)劇供(gong)需不平衡格局，長(chang)期來看，鋁(lv)價(jia)依(yi)舊(jiu)震蕩不已。