近日(ri),記(ji)者(zhe)從人行(xing)鄭州中支調查統計部門獲悉,由該行(xing)開展(zhan)的河南省鋁(lv)行(xing)業(ye)專項監測顯示:當前鋁(lv)行(xing)業(ye)庫存高企,鋁(lv)產品價格(ge)震蕩(dang)下(xia)行(xing),原材料(liao)成本上(shang)漲明顯,企業(ye)盈利能力和景(jing)氣度(du)大幅下(xia)降(jiang),下(xia)半年鋁(lv)價反(fan)彈空間仍然有限.

    一(yi)(yi)季(ji)度,河南(nan)省鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)行業景氣綜合指數(shu)為55%,較去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同期回落(luo)10個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)(dian).突出表(biao)現在(zai):一(yi)(yi)是(shi)產(chan)(chan)能利(li)用(yong)率下(xia)降(jiang).一(yi)(yi)季(ji)度,樣本企(qi)(qi)業總體產(chan)(chan)能利(li)用(yong)率為75.1%,較去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同期大幅(fu)下(xia)降(jiang)16個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)(dian).鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)指數(shu)為46.4%,低(di)于(yu)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同期21.5個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)(dian).樣本企(qi)(qi)業氧化鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)、電(dian)解(jie)(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)、鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)材產(chan)(chan)量(liang)分(fen)別(bie)為207.7萬(wan)噸(dun)、31.6萬(wan)噸(dun)、30.6萬(wan)噸(dun),其中(zhong),氧化鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)和電(dian)解(jie)(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)同比分(fen)別(bie)下(xia)降(jiang)10.2%、26%.二是(shi)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)價回落(luo).一(yi)(yi)季(ji)度,河南(nan)省鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)價格(ge)指數(shu)為67.9%,低(di)于(yu)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同期28.5個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)(dian);企(qi)(qi)業盈利(li)指數(shu)為35.7%,低(di)于(yu)去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同期50個(ge)百分(fen)點(dian)(dian),被調查(cha)企(qi)(qi)業一(yi)(yi)季(ji)度共虧(kui)(kui)損1.2億(yi)元,虧(kui)(kui)損企(qi)(qi)業數(shu)量(liang)由去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同期的(de)2家增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)到6家.三是(shi)電(dian)解(jie)(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)庫存(cun)高(gao)企(qi)(qi).一(yi)(yi)季(ji)度,河南(nan)省鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)企(qi)(qi)業主要產(chan)(chan)品(pin)庫存(cun)量(liang)指數(shu)為50%,存(cun)貨111.7億(yi)元,比去(qu)年(nian)(nian)同期增(zeng)(zeng)長28.7%.

    調查發(fa)現,鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)行業發(fa)展面臨(lin)多重考驗.一(yi)(yi)是生產(chan)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本上升.一(yi)(yi)季(ji)度(du)(du)監測企(qi)業主營業務成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本142億元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan),同比增長1.4%.一(yi)(yi)方(fang)面是原材料(liao)價格(ge)上升,一(yi)(yi)季(ji)度(du)(du)氧化鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)、陽極均價分別較上年(nian)同期上漲8%、44%;河南鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)企(qi)電(dian)(dian)費(fei)單價由0.4351元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/度(du)(du)漲到(dao)0.4579元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/度(du)(du).同時,政(zheng)策性成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本增加(jia)(jia),按要(yao)(yao)求自備(bei)電(dian)(dian)廠(chang)自用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)應繳(jiao)納政(zheng)府性基金及附加(jia)(jia).初(chu)步測算此(ci)項(xiang)政(zheng)策實(shi)施,電(dian)(dian)解鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)行業平均成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本提高約700元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/噸.此(ci)外,監測企(qi)業中(zhong)一(yi)(yi)季(ji)度(du)(du)總體融(rong)資(zi)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本同比上升占(zhan)比過半.二是環(huan)保(bao)(bao)硬(ying)約束加(jia)(jia)大(da).目前(qian)環(huan)保(bao)(bao)問(wen)題的影(ying)響主要(yao)(yao)體現在(zai)兩(liang)個方(fang)面:一(yi)(yi)方(fang)面,企(qi)業產(chan)量(liang)受到(dao)限制.按照(zhao)"2+26"個城市全面開展大(da)氣污(wu)染防治工作(zuo)要(yao)(yao)求,河南省鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)企(qi)業在(zai)采(cai)暖季(ji)限產(chan)30%.另一(yi)(yi)方(fang)面,企(qi)業為了適應環(huan)保(bao)(bao)要(yao)(yao)求,增加(jia)(jia)環(huan)保(bao)(bao)投(tou)入(ru).河南某(mou)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)企(qi)反(fan)(fan)映,國(guo)家(jia)要(yao)(yao)求發(fa)電(dian)(dian)機組必須在(zai)明年(nian)底完成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)超低(di)排放(fang)改造,預計(ji)需新投(tou)入(ru)資(zi)金4億元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan).三是中(zhong)美(mei)貿易(yi)摩擦等因(yin)素影(ying)響.6月15日(ri),美(mei)國(guo)宣布(bu)對進(jin)口中(zhong)國(guo)普通鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)合金薄板(ban)征收167.16%的初(chu)步反(fan)(fan)傾銷稅.此(ci)舉(ju)將對河南省鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)產(chan)品出口帶(dai)來較大(da)影(ying)響,直接抬高鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)產(chan)品在(zai)美(mei)國(guo)的銷售(shou)價格(ge)、降低(di)產(chan)品銷量(liang).

    有分析預測,下(xia)半(ban)年鋁(lv)(lv)價(jia)反彈空(kong)間(jian)仍然有限.原因在于:一(yi)是供給過剩短期(qi)(qi)內難(nan)以(yi)扭(niu)轉.隨(sui)著(zhu)供暖季后限制產能集中投放,電解鋁(lv)(lv)供應壓(ya)力不減.而傳(chuan)統(tong)鋁(lv)(lv)消(xiao)費領(ling)域投資增速從2016年已(yi)呈(cheng)現(xian)持續回落態勢(shi).二是成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)硬(ying)約束(shu)對鋁(lv)(lv)價(jia)下(xia)探形成(cheng)(cheng)支撐.下(xia)游(you)價(jia)格傳(chuan)導(dao)與生產成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)的共同(tong)抬升(sheng)交織(zhi),使鋁(lv)(lv)產品價(jia)格面(mian)臨(lin)硬(ying)支撐局面(mian).短期(qi)(qi)看(kan),受需求疲弱和(he)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)上(shang)升(sheng)的雙(shuang)重壓(ya)力,鋁(lv)(lv)價(jia)難(nan)以(yi)明顯(xian)回升(sheng).但長期(qi)(qi)看(kan),現(xian)貨(huo)與成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)價(jia)格倒掛將抑制電解鋁(lv)(lv)復產步伐,對鋁(lv)(lv)價(jia)下(xia)探形成(cheng)(cheng)支撐.未(wei)來一(yi)段時(shi)間(jian),鋁(lv)(lv)價(jia)或(huo)面(mian)臨(lin)產能過剩和(he)成(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)(ben)上(shang)升(sheng)的雙(shuang)重考(kao)驗,預計下(xia)半(ban)年鋁(lv)(lv)價(jia)會呈(cheng)現(xian)向下(xia)空(kong)間(jian)有限、向上(shang)動力不足(zu)的階段性小幅波動走勢(shi).