4月6日美(mei)國發(fa)布對俄(e)(e)(e)羅(luo)斯新一(yi)輪制裁(cai)決定,制裁(cai)名(ming)單中(zhong)包含(han)俄(e)(e)(e)鋁(lv)大(da)股東歐柏嘉(OlegDeripaska),受美(mei)對俄(e)(e)(e)制裁(cai)引發(fa)全球(qiu)鋁(lv)供給(gei)擔憂,近日倫(lun)敦三月期貨鋁(lv)大(da)幅走(zou)高至(zhi)2175美(mei)元(yuan)/噸,較4月6日上(shang)漲9.4%.俄(e)(e)(e)鋁(lv)被制裁(cai)和其(qi)他多因素(su)疊(die)加造成的供給(gei)進一(yi)步收縮或(huo)區域短缺,我們(men)認為鋁(lv)價或(huo)將再次(ci)進入上(shang)升通道.

    俄鋁被(bei)制裁望加劇除中俄外區域(yu)短缺(que),抬升(sheng)外盤鋁價.

    俄鋁(lv)被制裁將影響全球鋁(lv)供給結構(gou),抬升(sheng)(sheng)外(wai)(wai)盤鋁(lv)價.據SMM,2017年俄鋁(lv)公司(si)(si)原鋁(lv)產量370.7萬(wan)噸,占全球產量約6%;17年俄羅斯出(chu)口(kou)未鍛軋鋁(lv)到北美約69.3萬(wan)噸,2017年美國進(jin)口(kou)俄羅斯鋁(lv)制品74.4萬(wan)噸.俄鋁(lv)被制裁應(ying)從兩(liang)方面(mian)來考慮:一是俄鋁(lv)出(chu)現債(zhai)務危(wei)機,導致公司(si)(si)經營增加(jia)不確定性甚至停產,進(jin)而急劇(ju)加(jia)速全球短(duan)缺(que);二是俄鋁(lv)產品出(chu)口(kou)受(shou)阻(zu)加(jia)劇(ju)除中(zhong)俄外(wai)(wai)區(qu)域短(duan)缺(que),同樣(yang)提升(sheng)(sheng)外(wai)(wai)盤鋁(lv)價.

    供改(gai)和環保政策嚴控疊加(jia)燃煤自(zi)備電廠改(gai)革(ge),鋁供給小幅過剩望(wang)得到持續改(gai)善.

    在17年供改(gai)疊(die)加(jia)(jia)環保限產(chan)(chan)(chan)嚴控電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)的基礎上,疊(die)加(jia)(jia)18年火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)備電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠《意(yi)(yi)見(jian)(jian)稿(gao)》出爐,目前鋁(lv)(lv)供給(gei)小(xiao)幅過(guo)剩望繼(ji)續得(de)到改(gai)善.17年國(guo)家(jia)出臺656號(hao)文件從(cong)(cong)嚴清理電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)不合(he)規(gui)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng),實際(ji)(ji)關停電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)違規(gui)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)380萬噸,影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)279萬噸新增投產(chan)(chan)(chan),產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)過(guo)剩得(de)到有效控制,未來產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)置(zhi)換指(zhi)標(biao)存量有限,新增產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)受(shou)合(he)規(gui)指(zhi)標(biao)限制;環保政(zheng)(zheng)策加(jia)(jia)碼(ma)鋁(lv)(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業鏈(lian),2017年底采暖季(ji)2+26城市實際(ji)(ji)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)89.3萬噸,我(wo)(wo)們(men)認為(wei)18年采暖季(ji)錯峰生產(chan)(chan)(chan)政(zheng)(zheng)策從(cong)(cong)范(fan)圍和力度上或將(jiang)(jiang)更加(jia)(jia)嚴格,對(dui)(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)有效供給(gei)產(chan)(chan)(chan)生影(ying)(ying)響(xiang);3月22日(ri),國(guo)家(jia)發改(gai)委辦公廳下發《燃煤自(zi)備電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠規(gui)范(fan)建(jian)設(she)和運行(xing)專項(xiang)治理方案(征(zheng)求意(yi)(yi)見(jian)(jian)稿(gao))》,對(dui)(dui)征(zheng)繳政(zheng)(zheng)府性(xing)基金及(ji)附(fu)加(jia)(jia)、交(jiao)叉補貼(tie)和電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網調峰提出意(yi)(yi)見(jian)(jian),而(er)(er)據我(wo)(wo)們(men)研究,以(yi)鋁(lv)(lv)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)大省山東(dong)省和僅(jin)以(yi)基金及(ji)附(fu)加(jia)(jia)為(wei)例,其需繳的政(zheng)(zheng)府性(xing)基金及(ji)附(fu)加(jia)(jia)達到每度電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)達5.04分,可看出《意(yi)(yi)見(jian)(jian)稿(gao)》的實施將(jiang)(jiang)大力抬升火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠成本(ben)進而(er)(er)抬升鋁(lv)(lv)生產(chan)(chan)(chan)成本(ben),電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)(jie)(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)行(xing)業作為(wei)工業領(ling)域用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)大戶將(jiang)(jiang)受(shou)重大影(ying)(ying)響(xiang),產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)釋放或將(jiang)(jiang)繼(ji)續放緩(huan).而(er)(er)從(cong)(cong)這個角度考慮(lv)來看,火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)自(zi)備電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠配置(zhi)率低的公司受(shou)此影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)相(xiang)對(dui)(dui)較小(xiao).

    行業基本(ben)面轉(zhuan)好(hao),鋁價或將再次進入上升通道.