11月以來,臺灣(wan)鋁電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)電(dian)(dian)(dian)容公司股價(jia)均(jun)大幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)上漲,其中(zhong)龍頭立隆電(dian)(dian)(dian)子漲幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)25.96%,其它廠(chang)(chang)商鈺邦、智寶、金山電(dian)(dian)(dian)、凱美漲幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)分別為34.42%、 85.57%、 25.88%、127.06%;上游電(dian)(dian)(dian)極(ji)箔廠(chang)(chang)商立敦漲幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)70.74%.全球鋁電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)電(dian)(dian)(dian)容龍頭日系(xi)廠(chang)(chang)商Nippon Chemi-con近(jin)一年(nian)股價(jia)漲幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)80%,至今漲幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)超(chao)過(guo)40%;全齊(qi)第(di)二大鋁電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)電(dian)(dian)(dian)容器廠(chang)(chang)商Nichicon近(jin)一年(nian)股價(jia)漲幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)48%,至今漲幅(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)35%.

    鋁電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)應(ying)用領域廣(guang)泛,日(ri)系(xi)供應(ying)商(shang)占據(ju)半壁江山電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)器(qi)(qi)根據(ju)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)介質的不(bu)同主要分為鋁電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)器(qi)(qi)、鉭電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)器(qi)(qi)、陶瓷電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)器(qi)(qi)和薄膜(mo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)器(qi)(qi)四(si)大類,其中鋁電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)器(qi)(qi)具有(you)單位體積CV值高(gao)和性價比高(gao)等顯著優(you)點,占據(ju)了30%的電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)器(qi)(qi)市場份額.

    鋁電解(jie)電容(rong)器是由陽極箔、陰(yin)極箔、中間(jian)隔著電解(jie)紙卷繞后,再(zai)浸漬工作電解(jie)液,然后密封在鋁殼中而制成的電容(rong)器;

    鋁電(dian)(dian)解電(dian)(dian)容器(qi)主(zhu)要作用為:通交流、阻(zu)直流,具有(you)濾波(bo)、消振、諧振、旁路(lu)、耦合(he)和快速充放(fang)電(dian)(dian)的功能(neng),與其它電(dian)(dian)容器(qi)相比,具有(you)體積小、儲存電(dian)(dian)量大、成本(ben)低的特性;

    根(gen)據臺灣工業研究院(yuan)統計,全球鋁電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)電(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)器應(ying)用領(ling)域(yu)分布為消費(fei)性(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)子(zi)產品占45%, 工業占23%,資訊13%,通信7%,汽車(che)5%,其他7%. 消費(fei)類(lei)鋁電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)電(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)器主要用于(yu)節能照明、電(dian)(dian)(dian)視機(ji)、顯示(shi)器、計算機(ji)及(ji)空(kong)調(diao)等消費(fei)類(lei)市場;工業類(lei)鋁電(dian)(dian)(dian)解(jie)電(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)器主要用于(yu)工業和(he)通訊電(dian)(dian)(dian)源(yuan)、專業變頻器、數控和(he)伺服系統、風力發電(dian)(dian)(dian)及(ji)汽車(che)等工業領(ling)域(yu).

    根據電(dian)(dian)子元(yuan)器(qi)件行業協會統(tong)計,2017年全球鋁電(dian)(dian)解電(dian)(dian)容(rong)器(qi)市場規模(mo)預計為82億美金(jin),自然增長率(lv)為3-5%.

    目前,根據Paumanok Publications Inc統計, 日(ri)本、臺(tai)灣地區(qu)、韓國(guo)(guo)和中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)大(da)陸是全(quan)球鋁電(dian)(dian)解電(dian)(dian)容器的主(zhu)要(yao)生產國(guo)(guo)家和地區(qu),全(quan)球前五大(da)鋁電(dian)(dian)解電(dian)(dian)容器廠商有(you)四家是日(ri)本企業,其分別(bie)是:Nippon Chemi-con、 Nichicon、 Rubycon Panasonic,日(ri)系廠商占全(quan)球鋁電(dian)(dian)解電(dian)(dian)容器市場份額(e)超(chao)過60%.

    需(xu)求(qiu)端:日(ri)(ri)系(xi)廠(chang)商(shang)(shang)退出中低端市場,需(xu)求(qiu)向(xiang)大陸(lu)及(ji)臺灣(wan)轉(zhuan)移.近年來,日(ri)(ri)本企業一(yi)方(fang)面由(you)于(yu)生產成本高(gao),產品(pin)利潤率低(例如(ru)全球鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)電(dian)(dian)解電(dian)(dian)容器龍頭Nippon Chemi-con 2016H1凈利潤率為0.8%),部分日(ri)(ri)廠(chang)不堪虧損逐漸退出中低檔鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)電(dian)(dian)解電(dian)(dian)容器市場;另一(yi)方(fang)面由(you)于(yu)汽車(che)電(dian)(dian)子、服務器等帶動鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)電(dian)(dian)解電(dian)(dian)容需(xu)求(qiu), 日(ri)(ri)系(xi)廠(chang)商(shang)(shang)專注于(yu)附加值較高(gao)的汽車(che)和工業領域,釋出消費(fei)類電(dian)(dian)子電(dian)(dian)容器和材料市場領域給非日(ri)(ri)系(xi)廠(chang)商(shang)(shang),需(xu)求(qiu)向(xiang)大陸(lu)及(ji)臺灣(wan)轉(zhuan)移.

    供給端:上(shang)游(you)電(dian)(dian)子鋁箔缺貨不斷,價格喊漲.鋁電(dian)(dian)解(jie)電(dian)(dian)容器(qi)主(zhu)要原材(cai)料(liao)包括電(dian)(dian)極箔、鋁殼、引(yin)出線、電(dian)(dian)解(jie)紙、橡膠(jiao)塞等,其中電(dian)(dian)極箔是生產鋁電(dian)(dian)解(jie)電(dian)(dian)容器(qi)的(de)(de)關鍵性基礎材(cai)料(liao),用于承載電(dian)(dian)荷,占(zhan)鋁電(dian)(dian)解(jie)電(dian)(dian)容器(qi)生產成本的(de)(de)30%-60%.

    電(dian)(dian)極箔是高純鋁(lv)(lv)經(jing)過軋(ya)制、腐蝕、化成等一系(xi)列工序加工而成,其(qi)生產要(yao)求高.電(dian)(dian)極箔的性能在很大程度上決定著鋁(lv)(lv)電(dian)(dian)解電(dian)(dian)容器的容量、漏電(dian)(dian)流、損耗、壽命(ming)、可(ke)靠(kao)性、體積大小(xiao)等多項關鍵技(ji)術指標,亦是鋁(lv)(lv)電(dian)(dian)解電(dian)(dian)容器產業鏈中價(jia)值需要(yao)技(ji)術含量的部(bu)分(fen)之一.

   ; 電(dian)極箔(bo)采購(gou)轉向大(da)(da)陸(lu):根據(ju)智(zhi)研咨詢統計, 電(dian)極箔(bo)供應廠(chang)商主要(yao)來(lai)自日本和中(zhong)國大(da)(da)陸(lu),其中(zhong)中(zhong)國大(da)(da)陸(lu)為鋁箔(bo)重要(yao)生產(chan)(chan)地(di),占據(ju)約70——80%產(chan)(chan)量,由于日本電(dian)極箔(bo)廠(chang)商結(jie)構調整, 空(kong)調、家(jia)電(dian)、洗衣機等家(jia)電(dian)產(chan)(chan)品所(suo)需電(dian)容器鋁箔(bo)材料量大(da)(da),廠(chang)商向中(zhong)國大(da)(da)陸(lu)鋁箔(bo)廠(chang)商購(gou)買鋁箔(bo)產(chan)(chan)品,因此(ci)也造成(cheng)中(zhong)國大(da)(da)陸(lu)鋁箔(bo)供不應求(qiu).

    環(huan)(huan)評嚴(yan)格(ge)限制電(dian)極箔產能(neng):根據華鋒股份披露(lu),電(dian)占到電(dian)極箔材料成(cheng)本(ben)超過20%.由于電(dian)極箔耗電(dian)量(liang)高,由于電(dian)極箔生產會排放(fang)酸性廢(fei)水(shui)和刺激(ji)性氣體,政(zheng)府今(jin)年(nian)為環(huan)(huan)保嚴(yan)格(ge)管制廢(fei)水(shui)處理額度,環(huan)(huan)保壓力加大導致部(bu)分產能(neng)停產,小型鋁箔廠被淘汰出(chu)局(ju).

    上(shang)游鋁價上(shang)漲(zhang)帶動鋁箔漲(zhang)價:根據(ju)臺灣中時電子報新聞,業者表示,鋁材(cai)料(liao)占(zhan)鋁箔整體成(cheng)本大約50%,鋁原(yuan)料(liao)價格(ge)從2017年初每公噸(dun)1800美元(yuan)(yuan),到(dao)(dao)2017年12月(yue)已漲(zhang)到(dao)(dao)2200美元(yuan)(yuan),鋁箔材(cai)料(liao)2017年10月(yue)到(dao)(dao)11月(yue)漲(zhang)幅約8%到(dao)(dao)10%.

    根(gen)據(ju)臺(tai)灣中時(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)子報新聞,目前(qian)臺(tai)系鋁(lv)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)(rong)器(qi)廠(chang)(chang)(chang)認為,2018年高中低壓鋁(lv)箔(bo)均可能短(duan)缺(que),目前(qian)鋁(lv)箔(bo)供(gong)不(bu)應求,預(yu)估中國大陸(lu)11月、12月鋁(lv)箔(bo)短(duan)缺(que)影響程度在15%-25%.鋁(lv)箔(bo)材料的(de)短(duan)缺(que),導致下游鋁(lv)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)(rong)等(deng)被(bei)動元器(qi)件(jian)再掀漲(zhang)價風波.從拉貨時(shi)程來看,受(shou)到日(ri)(ri)系電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)(rong)器(qi)廠(chang)(chang)(chang)商銷售策略改變以及(ji)中國上游鋁(lv)箔(bo)材料供(gong)不(bu)應求等(deng)因素影響,日(ri)(ri)系電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)(rong)器(qi)廠(chang)(chang)(chang)商交貨時(shi)程,已(yi)經從原先的(de)6周拉長到12周,部分日(ri)(ri)系電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)容(rong)(rong)器(qi)廠(chang)(chang)(chang)商交貨時(shi)程甚至達(da)到半年.

    一方面,日(ri)系電(dian)容(rong)(rong)器(qi)產(chan)品交(jiao)期拉長,我們認為下游客戶(hu)有望加大(da)非日(ri)系電(dian)容(rong)(rong)器(qi)廠商(shang)的訂(ding)單,拉動(dong)大(da)陸及臺灣電(dian)容(rong)(rong)器(qi)供(gong)應商(shang)訂(ding)單.

    另一方面,價格(ge)方面,日(ri)系(xi)和臺(tai)系(xi)電(dian)容器(qi)廠(chang)商(shang)(shang)已經(jing)漲(zhang)價,大陸電(dian)容器(qi)廠(chang)商(shang)(shang)有(you)望受益于全球漲(zhang)價潮(chao);上游電(dian)子鋁箔及電(dian)極箔也有(you)望在(zai)缺貨浪潮(chao)下價格(ge)提升.