本月我(wo)國氧(yang)化鋁建成產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能合計7910萬噸,運行產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能7243噸,開(kai)工率91.6%,開(kai)工平穩.即將(jiang)進入采暖(nuan)季限產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)期(qi),氧(yang)化鋁生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)企業開(kai)工水(shui)平將(jiang)逐步下降,限產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)區域(yu)內企業將(jiang)按生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)線(xian)計限產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)30%.其中河南省(sheng)份及(ji)山東淄博、濱州地(di)區政(zheng)策已(yi)落地(di)至具體企業.

    2017年10月份國內氧化(hua)鋁企(qi)業產能(neng)運(yun)行分析(xi)

    截至目(mu)前(qian),中(zhong)鋁(lv)山(shan)東滿(man)(man)負荷(he)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan),預(yu)計11月(yue)份(fen)開始計劃(hua)采暖(nuan)(nuan)季(ji)限(xian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)30%;魏橋滿(man)(man)負荷(he)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan),后期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)執行采暖(nuan)(nuan)季(ji)限(xian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan);信發(fa)電(dian)解鋁(lv)減產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)53萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)尚未影響(xiang)氧(yang)(yang)化(hua)鋁(lv)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan),氧(yang)(yang)化(hua)鋁(lv)開工(gong)400萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),故采暖(nuan)(nuan)季(ji)限(xian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)或無影響(xiang);齊星集團重組有(you)(you)變數,氧(yang)(yang)化(hua)鋁(lv)繼續處(chu)于停產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)狀態;山(shan)東魯北生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)暫無變化(hua),后期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)采暖(nuan)(nuan)季(ji)限(xian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)30%.中(zhong)鋁(lv)山(shan)西(xi)(xi)恢復滿(man)(man)負荷(he)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan);國(guo)電(dian)投(tou)(tou)氧(yang)(yang)化(hua)鋁(lv)恢復滿(man)(man)負荷(he)開工(gong);中(zhong)鋁(lv)興華二期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)順利投(tou)(tou)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan),月(yue)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量有(you)(you)效增(zeng)加;泰興二期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)30萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)氧(yang)(yang)化(hua)鋁(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)預(yu)計11月(yue)份(fen)投(tou)(tou)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan);森澤煤鋁(lv)三期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)新(xin)建產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)投(tou)(tou)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan),預(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)11月(yue)底出成(cheng)品(pin);田園化(hua)工(gong)有(you)(you)新(xin)投(tou)(tou)預(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi),預(yu)計四季(ji)度或將投(tou)(tou)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan);華慶(qing)停產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)擴能(neng)中(zhong);山(shan)西(xi)(xi)兆(zhao)豐(feng)維持六成(cheng)以上開工(gong).云南文(wen)山(shan)氧(yang)(yang)化(hua)鋁(lv)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)力(li)達到160萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun).中(zhong)鋁(lv)旗下貴(gui)(gui)州彈性減產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)恢復生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan),貴(gui)(gui)州廣鋁(lv)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)正常(chang);重慶(qing)地區博賽氧(yang)(yang)化(hua)鋁(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)恢復滿(man)(man)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan);中(zhong)鋁(lv)廣西(xi)(xi)華昇新(xin)材料(liao)氧(yang)(yang)化(hua)鋁(lv)及配(pei)套項目(mu)奠基,規(gui)劃(hua)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)400萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun).河(he)南全省氧(yang)(yang)化(hua)鋁(lv)限(xian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan),后期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)逐步推(tui)進.前(qian)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)山(shan)西(xi)(xi)呂梁加入采暖(nuan)(nuan)季(ji)限(xian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)行列(lie),呂梁氧(yang)(yang)化(hua)鋁(lv)企(qi)業(ye)限(xian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)30%,但(dan)文(wen)件(jian)并未明確指出限(xian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)30%具(ju)體(ti)是(shi)(shi)依(yi)照建成(cheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng),還是(shi)(shi)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)線計算,具(ju)體(ti)影響(xiang)需待后續關(guan)注(zhu).

    本(ben)(ben)月(yue)(yue)(yue)國內氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)鋁(lv)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)飆升,截至月(yue)(yue)(yue)底,市場主流報價(jia)(jia)(jia)3590-3850元/噸(dun)(dun),月(yue)(yue)(yue)均價(jia)(jia)(jia)較(jiao)上(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)上(shang)漲185元/噸(dun)(dun),漲幅(fu)為5.23%.同(tong)時中鋁(lv)氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)鋁(lv)掛(gua)牌價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)上(shang)調至3690-3850元/噸(dun)(dun),漲幅(fu)為6.50%.國內氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)鋁(lv)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)本(ben)(ben)月(yue)(yue)(yue)繼續(xu)上(shang)漲,但(dan)(dan)是漲幅(fu)較(jiao)上(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)明顯收窄.本(ben)(ben)月(yue)(yue)(yue)氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)鋁(lv)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)重心繼續(xu)上(shang)漲的主要原(yuan)因有以(yi)下幾點:第一,北方各(ge)地采(cai)暖季(ji)限產文件陸(lu)續(xu)落地,更有部(bu)分地區公布了限產企業詳(xiang)單(dan),月(yue)(yue)(yue)初現(xian)貨(huo)市場流通貨(huo)源銳減(jian),甚至出現(xian)一貨(huo)難求的局面,導致氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)鋁(lv)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)水漲船高;第二,前期(qi)部(bu)分小型鋁(lv)土礦(kuang)等被關停,礦(kuang)源趨緊提(ti)振氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)鋁(lv)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge).但(dan)(dan)是臨近(jin)月(yue)(yue)(yue)末,鋁(lv)價(jia)(jia)(jia)重心小幅(fu)回落,氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)鋁(lv)市場接(jie)貨(huo)力度(du)漸緩,氧(yang)(yang)(yang)化(hua)鋁(lv)維(wei)持高位(wei)震蕩狀態.