氧(yang)化(hua)鋁:

    2017年9月(yue)(30天)氧(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)化鋁(lv)(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)為(wei)578.6萬(wan)噸,同比增(zeng)幅17.0%,日均產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)為(wei)19.3萬(wan)噸,日均產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)環比增(zeng)加(jia)0.9%.一是(shi)河(he)南(nan)省的(de)東方(fang)希望三門峽(xia)鋁(lv)(lv)業和三門峽(xia)開曼鋁(lv)(lv)業公司因礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)石(shi)(shi)緊(jin)張(zhang)而進(jin)行壓產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan),同為(wei)河(he)南(nan)的(de)中(zhong)鋁(lv)(lv)中(zhong)州(zhou)(zhou)因為(wei)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)石(shi)(shi)緊(jin)張(zhang)和焦(jiao)作(zuo)市提前進(jin)行供(gong)暖季限產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)而減(jian)(jian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan),山(shan)西復晟(sheng)鋁(lv)(lv)業因為(wei)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)石(shi)(shi)和天然(ran)氣問(wen)題(ti)減(jian)(jian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan);二(er)是(shi)氧(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)化鋁(lv)(lv)價格大(da)幅上(shang)漲(zhang),導致廣(guang)西、貴州(zhou)(zhou)等不(bu)受礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)石(shi)(shi)問(wen)題(ti)困擾(rao)的(de)氧(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)化鋁(lv)(lv)企業超負(fu)荷生產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan),廣(guang)西華銀如期進(jin)行檢修,但正常檢修不(bu)減(jian)(jian)量(liang);山(shan)西、河(he)南(nan)部分(fen)小企業因為(wei)礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)石(shi)(shi)需求下受礦(kuang)(kuang)(kuang)石(shi)(shi)困擾(rao)小,也超負(fu)荷生產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan),綜合(he)計(ji)算,9月(yue)份(fen)(fen)氧(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)化鋁(lv)(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)比預(yu)計(ji)略有增(zeng)加(jia);10月(yue)份(fen)(fen)(31天)預(yu)計(ji)氧(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)化鋁(lv)(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)為(wei)598.8萬(wan)噸,雖然(ran)各地限產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)方(fang)案(an)相繼出臺,但由于(yu)氧(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)化鋁(lv)(lv)減(jian)(jian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)所需時間較短,目前企業未計(ji)劃10月(yue)份(fen)(fen)開始(shi)減(jian)(jian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(焦(jiao)作(zuo)氧(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)化鋁(lv)(lv)企業除外),故而10月(yue)份(fen)(fen)氧(yang)(yang)(yang)(yang)化鋁(lv)(lv)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)暫按未減(jian)(jian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)預(yu)計(ji).

    電解鋁(lv):

    2017年9月(30天(tian))國(guo)(guo)內電解鋁(lv)產量291.9萬(wan)噸(dun),同比增(zeng)加(jia)7.9%,前9月國(guo)(guo)內電解鋁(lv)合(he)計(ji)產量2740.3萬(wan)噸(dun),同比增(zeng)加(jia)18.4%,9月國(guo)(guo)內電解鋁(lv)年化產能3551.5萬(wan)噸(dun).9月以來,山東、新疆等(deng)地減(jian)產效果(guo)進一步發(fa)酵,此外,包括焦作萬(wan)方、山西兆豐等(deng)鋁(lv)企提前進入取暖季限(xian)產,電解鋁(lv)供應縮緊態勢持續.

    10月13日,山(shan)東濱州(zhou)公(gong)布(bu)取(qu)暖季(ji)(2017.11.5-2018.3.15)限(xian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)方(fang)案,其(qi)中影響產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)253萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(含前期(qi)供給側改革影響部分(fen)(fen)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)94萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)),預(yu)計減產(chan)(chan)(chan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)在159萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun).此前河南省公(gong)布(bu)取(qu)暖季(ji)限(xian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)方(fang)方(fang)案,已(yi)經(jing)公(gong)布(bu)限(xian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)55萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),疊加(jia)山(shan)東濱州(zhou)部分(fen)(fen),預(yu)計減產(chan)(chan)(chan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)已(yi)經(jing)達到214萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),隨后山(shan)東聊(liao)城等地仍(reng)有(you)部分(fen)(fen)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)預(yu)計公(gong)布(bu)取(qu)暖季(ji)限(xian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)方(fang)案.SMM了解(jie),在取(qu)暖季(ji)限(xian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)之外(wai),仍(reng)有(you)部分(fen)(fen)新增產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)處于在投產(chan)(chan)(chan)和預(yu)備投產(chan)(chan)(chan)過程中,包括內(nei)(nei)蒙古(gu)華云二期(qi)28萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),廣西(xi)華磊一(yi)期(qi)40萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),山(shan)西(xi)華潤一(yi)期(qi)50萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),貴州(zhou)華仁一(yi)期(qi)50萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),此外(wai),新疆(jiang)其(qi)亞、內(nei)(nei)蒙古(gu)蒙泰、內(nei)(nei)蒙古(gu)創源(yuan)等擁(yong)有(you)新增置(zhi)換指標(biao)的(de)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)有(you)望年內(nei)(nei)投產(chan)(chan)(chan),疊加(jia)部分(fen)(fen)復(fu)產(chan)(chan)(chan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng),其(qi)他不受取(qu)暖季(ji)影響地區(qu)的(de)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)將補(bu)充部分(fen)(fen)取(qu)暖季(ji)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)限(xian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)缺口,SMM預(yu)計10月國內(nei)(nei)電解(jie)鋁產(chan)(chan)(chan)量297.3萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),同比增加(jia)6.1%.