從今(jin)年六月(yue)份開始,現貨鋁錠價格一路上漲.

    主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)原(yuan)因是(shi)(shi)受(shou)到去產(chan)能(neng)和環保(bao)(bao)的雙(shuang)重影(ying)響,市(shi)場(chang)對原(yuan)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)供應是(shi)(shi)否存在(zai)(zai)缺口(kou)也是(shi)(shi)意見不一.然而再(zai)(zai)生鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)行(xing)(xing)業卻呈現出逐年遞增的趨勢(shi),目前我們了(le)解的2016年的再(zai)(zai)生鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)產(chan)量是(shi)(shi)630萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),2015年的再(zai)(zai)生鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)產(chan)量是(shi)(shi)572萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),同比增加了(le)58萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun),目前再(zai)(zai)生鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)產(chan)量的增速保(bao)(bao)持(chi)在(zai)(zai)11%.其中518萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)是(shi)(shi)用(yong)于再(zai)(zai)生鑄造鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)合金錠,主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)以(yi)生產(chan)國標(biao)ADC12這個(ge)牌號為主(zhu).另外(wai)112萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)用(yong)于鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)加工(gong)行(xing)(xing)業,主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)是(shi)(shi)型(xing)材、板類(lei)等行(xing)(xing)業.目前我國已處于工(gong)業化后期,鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)行(xing)(xing)業開始進(jin)入(ru)回收期,考慮到目前原(yuan)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)的基(ji)數還是(shi)(shi)偏(pian)大,2016年保(bao)(bao)持(chi)在(zai)(zai)3120萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun).如(ru)果按照這個(ge)標(biao)準去推算,那么再(zai)(zai)生鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)630萬(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)占整體消費只有16.5%.根(gen)據(ju)"十三五"要(yao)(yao)求再(zai)(zai)生鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)要(yao)(yao)達到30%以(yi)上,說明國內(nei)再(zai)(zai)生鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)還有很大的發展空間.

    再生鋁(lv)產量逐(zhu)年增加(jia),進口廢鋁(lv)的量卻(que)是逐(zhu)年減少.

    2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)進口(kou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)是(shi)(shi)(shi)285萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)是(shi)(shi)(shi)208萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)是(shi)(shi)(shi)191萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun).我(wo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)有色網測算鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)碎料的(de)(de)(de)(de)含(han)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)量(liang)(liang)(liang)保(bao)持(chi)在90%,其他主要是(shi)(shi)(shi)銅、鎂、鋅、鐵(tie).按(an)照這(zhe)個比例我(wo)們(men)推算2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)進口(kou)廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)含(han)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)量(liang)(liang)(liang)是(shi)(shi)(shi)187.2萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)是(shi)(shi)(shi)171.9萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun).我(wo)們(men)國內廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)需要量(liang)(liang)(liang)是(shi)(shi)(shi)根據(ju)再生(sheng)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)產量(liang)(liang)(liang)減去(qu)國外廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)進口(kou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)得(de)(de)到的(de)(de)(de)(de).2015年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)國內最少(shao)提供364萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun)廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)需要量(liang)(liang)(liang),2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)是(shi)(shi)(shi)439萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun).如何(he)通過需求去(qu)推供應,我(wo)們(men)是(shi)(shi)(shi)結合(he)需求、庫(ku)存(cun)和(he)出(chu)口(kou)量(liang)(liang)(liang).庫(ku)存(cun)方面我(wo)們(men)按(an)照再生(sheng)合(he)金錠企(qi)業常備(bei)一個月(yue)的(de)(de)(de)(de)廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)庫(ku)存(cun)比例得(de)(de)出(chu),2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)常備(bei)廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)庫(ku)存(cun)是(shi)(shi)(shi)52.5萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),2016年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)出(chu)口(kou)量(liang)(liang)(liang)是(shi)(shi)(shi)64萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun),國內廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)供應量(liang)(liang)(liang)可以(yi)推出(chu)是(shi)(shi)(shi)555.5萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)(dun)(dun).

    按照目(mu)前的供應和需求今(jin)年(nian)是否會有(you)缺口產生?

    我(wo)(wo)(wo)們(men)是(shi)通過增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)去驗(yan)證.國(guo)內(nei)(nei)廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應量(liang)的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)是(shi)13%,國(guo)內(nei)(nei)廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)需求(qiu)的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)是(shi)20%,再生(sheng)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)產(chan)量(liang)的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)是(shi)11%.2017年(nian)(nian)廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應量(liang)預計635.075萬(wan)噸(dun),需求(qiu)量(liang)是(shi)526.8萬(wan)噸(dun),廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)出口(kou)(kou)(kou)量(liang)截止7月底是(shi)34萬(wan)噸(dun),今年(nian)(nian)預計能達到50萬(wan)噸(dun).廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)量(liang)截止7月底是(shi)124萬(wan)噸(dun),今年(nian)(nian)預計進(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)量(liang)降至(zhi)172.5萬(wan)噸(dun).由(you)此可(ke)以(yi)推(tui)測今年(nian)(nian)會剩余230.775萬(wan)噸(dun)廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應.從(cong)目前(qian)的(de)數(shu)據來(lai)看,我(wo)(wo)(wo)們(men)需要重點關注的(de)是(shi)國(guo)內(nei)(nei)廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應量(liang)的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)和進(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)量(liang)的(de)下(xia)滑(hua)速(su)(su)(su)度(du).首先前(qian)者從(cong)2010年(nian)(nian)以(yi)后(hou)開始增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)加(jia)(jia)快,而且隨(sui)著(zhu)今后(hou)幾年(nian)(nian)國(guo)內(nei)(nei)大規模鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)品報廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)期的(de)來(lai)臨(lin),增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)遞增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)的(de)可(ke)能性很高.后(hou)者雖然持續下(xia)滑(hua),但據我(wo)(wo)(wo)的(de)有色(se)網了解禁止進(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)的(de)第(di)七類(lei)廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)數(shu)量(liang)占(zhan)整個廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)進(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)量(liang)只(zhi)有40%左右(you),而且目前(qian)再生(sheng)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)合錠企(qi)業都(dou)是(shi)采購第(di)六類(lei)廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)生(sheng)產(chan),這對(dui)國(guo)內(nei)(nei)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)并(bing)沒(mei)有太大的(de)影響.在(zai)國(guo)內(nei)(nei)需求(qiu)和出口(kou)(kou)(kou)穩(wen)定(ding)的(de)情況下(xia),目前(qian)供(gong)(gong)(gong)應的(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)肯定(ding)是(shi)要大于進(jin)口(kou)(kou)(kou)的(de)減少.所以(yi)我(wo)(wo)(wo)們(men)認為在(zai)沒(mei)有缺口(kou)(kou)(kou)的(de)情況下(xia),廢(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)價格會隨(sui)著(zhu)原鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)價格穩(wen)步上漲.