此(ci)前,電(dian)解鋁清(qing)理(li)(li)整(zheng)頓行(xing)動的(de)(de)(de)地方核查階段已完成,回顧這次行(xing)動,對(dui)于鋁價的(de)(de)(de)走(zou)勢也(ye)帶來了(le)相(xiang)應的(de)(de)(de)影響(xiang).隨著各企(qi)業減產的(de)(de)(de)不(bu)斷(duan)進行(xing),距離違(wei)規產能關(guan)(guan)停的(de)(de)(de)規定(ding)日期逐漸臨近,政(zheng)(zheng)策也(ye)在(zai)不(bu)斷(duan)的(de)(de)(de)落實中(zhong).整(zheng)體來看,鋁價走(zou)勢也(ye)開(kai)始相(xiang)對(dui)清(qing)晰(xi),受減產影響(xiang),鋁價開(kai)始獲得(de)上(shang)行(xing)的(de)(de)(de)動能.分析(xi)影響(xiang)今年鋁價的(de)(de)(de)原因(yin)(yin),不(bu)可避免的(de)(de)(de)就(jiu)是政(zheng)(zheng)策方面的(de)(de)(de)因(yin)(yin)素,從(cong)今年年初開(kai)始,有關(guan)(guan)部門(men)就(jiu)把清(qing)理(li)(li)整(zheng)頓劃入今年的(de)(de)(de)改革計劃中(zhong),從(cong)政(zheng)(zheng)策的(de)(de)(de)下(xia)發,各地區企(qi)業也(ye)在(zai)積(ji)極配合落實,使得(de)相(xiang)關(guan)(guan)政(zheng)(zheng)策得(de)以順利(li)實施.

    從減產(chan)(chan)效果來看(kan),目前的幾十(shi)萬噸雖(sui)然并(bing)不會(hui)(hui)對(dui)市場(chang)(chang)供(gong)(gong)需結(jie)構產(chan)(chan)生根(gen)本性的變(bian)化,但已經可(ke)以(yi)很(hen)(hen)明確的得出今年(nian)違規(gui)產(chan)(chan)能的關(guan)停是不可(ke)避免(mian)的.在新(xin)疆違規(gui)產(chan)(chan)能逐步關(guan)停之(zhi)后,下(xia)一步內蒙和(he)山東地區違規(gui)關(guan)停也可(ke)能會(hui)(hui)逐步啟(qi)動,以(yi)之(zhi)前政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)給出的10月15日最終時間(jian)節點來看(kan),這(zhe)種(zhong)陸續(xu)有(you)產(chan)(chan)能關(guan)停的情況可(ke)能會(hui)(hui)延續(xu)至8、9月份(fen).密集的減產(chan)(chan)消(xiao)息將(jiang)會(hui)(hui)對(dui)鋁(lv)價形成很(hen)(hen)好(hao)的保(bao)護(hu),同時還有(you)供(gong)(gong)暖季(ji),2+26政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)將(jiang)會(hui)(hui)開始(shi)實施,近低遠高的格(ge)局仍將(jiang)維持(chi).如果期間(jian)政(zheng)(zheng)策(ce)執行順利,預(yu)計鋁(lv)價或(huo)將(jiang)長(chang)時間(jian)保(bao)持(chi)強勢格(ge)局.加上今年(nian)市場(chang)(chang)對(dui)供(gong)(gong)給側改革預(yu)期較為一致,空頭對(dui)進入滬(hu)鋁(lv)有(you)所顧忌,多頭則是因為在4月以(yi)后供(gong)(gong)給側改革執行力度又不及(ji)市場(chang)(chang)預(yu)期,長(chang)時間(jian)沒有(you)推進,耐(nai)性開始(shi)逐步消(xiao)退.

    據鋁(lv)(lv)融網數據統計(ji),今(jin)年(nian)(nian)預計(ji)仍(reng)(reng)(reng)將有(you)68.4萬(wan)噸(dun)產(chan)能(neng)將會(hui)(hui)投放市(shi)場.如果內(nei)蒙古和(he)(he)山東(dong)相(xiang)對(dui)沒有(you)做(zuo)出(chu)(chu)更多表現(xian)(xian)(xian),那么(me)全年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)減(jian)(jian)(jian)產(chan)量估算將在60萬(wan)噸(dun)左(zuo)右(you),加上(shang)(shang)今(jin)年(nian)(nian)需求仍(reng)(reng)(reng)難(nan)以看(kan)到(dao)(dao)太大的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)亮點,鋁(lv)(lv)市(shi)場全年(nian)(nian)仍(reng)(reng)(reng)將處(chu)于過剩(sheng)態勢.但(dan)后(hou)(hou)期(qi)(qi)(qi)內(nei)蒙和(he)(he)山東(dong)地區出(chu)(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)違(wei)規關停是(shi)大概率(lv)事(shi)件,不排除(chu)今(jin)年(nian)(nian)個別(bie)月(yue)份(fen)出(chu)(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)階(jie)段(duan)性錯配的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)情(qing)況(kuang),但(dan)是(shi)高企(qi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)庫存(cun)(cun)使得去(qu)年(nian)(nian)現(xian)(xian)(xian)貨緊張導(dao)致升(sheng)(sheng)水(shui)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)格局很難(nan)出(chu)(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian).雖然供(gong)(gong)應壓(ya)力隨著供(gong)(gong)給側改革的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)進行可能(neng)會(hui)(hui)逐(zhu)步得到(dao)(dao)緩解,但(dan)7、8月(yue)仍(reng)(reng)(reng)將是(shi)基本(ben)面(mian)壓(ya)力較(jiao)大的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)兩(liang)個月(yue),鋁(lv)(lv)市(shi)場開(kai)始(shi)進入季節性淡季,統計(ji)局數據顯示截至到(dao)(dao)6月(yue)底(di),房(fang)屋開(kai)工以及(ji)汽車產(chan)量增(zeng)幅已經連(lian)續(xu)多月(yue)快速下滑.維持(chi)高位(wei)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)現(xian)(xian)(xian)貨庫存(cun)(cun)和(he)(he)貼水(shui)也印證了現(xian)(xian)(xian)有(you)消費情(qing)況(kuang),在期(qi)(qi)(qi)貨受消息驅(qu)動開(kai)始(shi)上(shang)(shang)漲的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)同時(shi),現(xian)(xian)(xian)貨跟(gen)隨并不積極,市(shi)場上(shang)(shang)貨源充裕.按現(xian)(xian)(xian)在反饋的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)信息來看(kan),庫存(cun)(cun)仍(reng)(reng)(reng)有(you)繼續(xu)上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)可能(neng),短期(qi)(qi)(qi)內(nei)拐點很難(nan)出(chu)(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian),但(dan)隨著鋁(lv)(lv)企(qi)進入密集停產(chan)期(qi)(qi)(qi),在8、9月(yue)份(fen)或將出(chu)(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)鋁(lv)(lv)價(jia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)拐點.整體(ti)來看(kan),短期(qi)(qi)(qi)內(nei)減(jian)(jian)(jian)產(chan)事(shi)件等對(dui)于市(shi)場影(ying)響難(nan)以達到(dao)(dao)較(jiao)大效果,但(dan)長期(qi)(qi)(qi)來看(kan),減(jian)(jian)(jian)產(chan)量逐(zhu)漸累積,市(shi)場缺口出(chu)(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian)后(hou)(hou)會(hui)(hui)導(dao)致多頭行情(qing)出(chu)(chu)現(xian)(xian)(xian).現(xian)(xian)(xian)階(jie)段(duan)鋁(lv)(lv)價(jia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)反復主(zhu)要(yao)是(shi)因為(wei)基本(ben)面(mian)相(xiang)對(dui)萎靡,加上(shang)(shang)減(jian)(jian)(jian)產(chan)還未達到(dao)(dao)理想效果等,目(mu)前的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)單(dan)邊趨(qu)勢行情(qing)仍(reng)(reng)(reng)然前需要(yao)基本(ben)面(mian)配合.鋁(lv)(lv)融網認為(wei),在短期(qi)(qi)(qi)內(nei)鋁(lv)(lv)價(jia)將維持(chi)震蕩偏強走勢,供(gong)(gong)給側改革的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)影(ying)響從長期(qi)(qi)(qi)來看(kan)依然向好.