近期(qi)電(dian)解(jie)(jie)鋁違規(gui)關(guan)停(ting)(ting)行(xing)動正加速進行(xing)著(zhu),據相(xiang)關(guan)媒(mei)體報道,新疆(jiang)地(di)區違規(gui)電(dian)解(jie)(jie)鋁產(chan)能(neng)關(guan)停(ting)(ting)出現(xian)新進展:新疆(jiang)嘉潤違規(gui)產(chan)能(neng)15萬噸,涉及到約120臺500千安的電(dian)解(jie)(jie)槽,現(xian)在(zai)還剩30臺沒有關(guan)停(ting)(ting),預計(ji)(ji)7月(yue)10號(hao)能(neng)全部關(guan)停(ting)(ting).新疆(jiang)東方希望違規(gui)產(chan)能(neng)80萬噸,涉及到約540臺500千安的電(dian)解(jie)(jie)槽,已經(jing)關(guan)停(ting)(ting)30-40臺,計(ji)(ji)劃(hua)7月(yue)20日(ri)全部關(guan)停(ting)(ting).

    對(dui)于此(ci)次新(xin)(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)地區(qu)電解鋁關(guan)(guan)(guan)停(ting)行(xing)(xing)動(dong),使得新(xin)(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)違(wei)規(gui)(gui)在(zai)(zai)產(chan)(chan)(chan)及在(zai)(zai)建(jian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)有望(wang)率先出(chu)清(qing).根據鋁融(rong)網統計,新(xin)(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)違(wei)規(gui)(gui)在(zai)(zai)建(jian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)200萬噸,實際已(yi)建(jian)成40萬噸,在(zai)(zai)產(chan)(chan)(chan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)107萬噸.在(zai)(zai)4月(yue)14日(ri),昌吉州人民政(zheng)府(fu)關(guan)(guan)(guan)閉(bi)在(zai)(zai)建(jian)違(wei)規(gui)(gui)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng),4月(yue)26日(ri),新(xin)(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)嘉(jia)(jia)潤(run)在(zai)(zai)產(chan)(chan)(chan)違(wei)規(gui)(gui)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)開始關(guan)(guan)(guan)閉(bi),還剩30臺(tai)(tai)預計在(zai)(zai)7月(yue)10日(ri)完(wan)成.對(dui)于此(ci)次關(guan)(guan)(guan)閉(bi),鋁融(rong)網認為(wei)是為(wei)了響應(ying)4月(yue)份(fen)國(guo)(guo)家(jia)四部(bu)委出(chu)臺(tai)(tai)的(de)《清(qing)理整頓(dun)電解鋁行(xing)(xing)業違(wei)法違(wei)規(gui)(gui)項目行(xing)(xing)動(dong)工作(zuo)方案》要求(qiu),與(yu)山東(dong)魏橋鋁業減產(chan)(chan)(chan)行(xing)(xing)動(dong)原因相一致.據有關(guan)(guan)(guan)消息稱(cheng),新(xin)(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)昌吉自治州政(zheng)府(fu)已(yi)經要求(qiu)新(xin)(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)嘉(jia)(jia)潤(run)和新(xin)(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)東(dong)方希望(wang)運行(xing)(xing)的(de)違(wei)規(gui)(gui)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)部(bu)分在(zai)(zai)7月(yue)20之(zhi)前必須全(quan)部(bu)停(ting)完(wan),國(guo)(guo)家(jia)環(huan)保部(bu)及相關(guan)(guan)(guan)部(bu)門要到新(xin)(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)對(dui)此(ci)事(shi)進行(xing)(xing)督察.作(zuo)為(wei)中國(guo)(guo)電解鋁違(wei)規(gui)(gui)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)三大(da)集中區(qu)的(de)新(xin)(xin)疆(jiang)(jiang)地區(qu),如果(guo)(guo)違(wei)規(gui)(gui)項目在(zai)(zai)產(chan)(chan)(chan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)全(quan)部(bu)關(guan)(guan)(guan)閉(bi),將(jiang)導致電解鋁產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)減少107萬噸/年 ,且(qie)多為(wei)低成本(ben)、滿產(chan)(chan)(chan)的(de)有效產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng).所(suo)以(yi),認為(wei)雖然違(wei)規(gui)(gui)在(zai)(zai)產(chan)(chan)(chan)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)在(zai)(zai)陸續關(guan)(guan)(guan)閉(bi),但如果(guo)(guo)要在(zai)(zai)7月(yue)20日(ri)之(zhi)前完(wan)成,相應(ying)的(de)壓(ya)力還是比較(jiao)大(da)的(de).

    根(gen)據統計(ji)數據,2017年(nian)(nian)全國電解(jie)(jie)鋁產(chan)(chan)(chan)能4600萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)3650萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),而需求僅為(wei)(wei)3507萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),過(guo)(guo)剩(sheng)143萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun).截(jie)止到(dao)目前,在產(chan)(chan)(chan)違規產(chan)(chan)(chan)能合計(ji)關閉(bi)47萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)/年(nian)(nian)(山東(dong)魏橋25萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)/年(nian)(nian),新疆(jiang)東(dong)方希望5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)/年(nian)(nian) 、新疆(jiang)嘉潤15萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)/年(nian)(nian)、新疆(jiang)其亞(ya)2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)/年(nian)(nian)),年(nian)(nian)化產(chan)(chan)(chan)能23.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)/年(nian)(nian),按照90%開(kai)工(gong)率,則(ze)影響(xiang)(xiang)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)21萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun).如果新疆(jiang)東(dong)方希望80萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun)/年(nian)(nian)全部關閉(bi),則(ze)影響(xiang)(xiang)年(nian)(nian)化產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)預計(ji)為(wei)(wei)36萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun),全年(nian)(nian)電解(jie)(jie)鋁減量(liang)(liang)57萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)(dun).到(dao)目前為(wei)(wei)止,關停的在建產(chan)(chan)(chan)能雖(sui)然(ran)對(dui)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)過(guo)(guo)剩(sheng)的大環境(jing)帶來了(le)緩解(jie)(jie),但仍然(ran)沒(mei)有(you)從(cong)根(gen)本上改變(bian)市場供需不平(ping)衡狀態,市場缺口仍未(wei)出現.

    從整體來(lai)看(kan),現(xian)在全(quan)(quan)國大范圍整頓正在進行(xing)(xing)中,除新疆地(di)區(qu)外,內(nei)蒙古(gu)和山(shan)東(dong)地(di)區(qu)等也在加(jia)快進行(xing)(xing)整頓關停(ting)行(xing)(xing)動.根據鋁融網統計(ji),內(nei)蒙古(gu)違(wei)規在產(chan)(chan)120萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)/年(nian),山(shan)東(dong)違(wei)規在產(chan)(chan)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)267萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)/年(nian).從數(shu)據可以看(kan)出,如果(guo)新疆地(di)區(qu)完成出清,相應的會(hui)對內(nei)蒙古(gu)和山(shan)東(dong)地(di)區(qu)企業產(chan)(chan)生不(bu)小的壓力,從而促使(shi)兩地(di)加(jia)快違(wei)規關停(ting),面臨關閉(bi)的產(chan)(chan)能(neng)估計(ji)將(jiang)達(da)到193.5萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun).如果(guo)7月(yue)份違(wei)規在產(chan)(chan)全(quan)(quan)部關閉(bi),則將(jiang)影響年(nian)化(hua)產(chan)(chan)量72.6萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun),全(quan)(quan)年(nian)合計(ji)減產(chan)(chan)129.6萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun).從而使(shi)得2017年(nian)鋁市場(chang)逐漸回歸(gui)(gui)供需(xu)平衡.在短期內(nei)市場(chang)的改變(bian)或(huo)不(bu)明(ming)顯,但從長期來(lai)看(kan),市場(chang)缺口會(hui)隨(sui)著產(chan)(chan)量不(bu)斷下降(jiang)而開始(shi)出現(xian),預計(ji)到明(ming)年(nian)年(nian)初,我(wo)國電解鋁市場(chang)或(huo)將(jiang)回歸(gui)(gui)供需(xu)平衡,甚(shen)至出現(xian)相對短缺現(xian)象.