近期鋁行業進(jin)入(ru)傳統消費淡季,作(zuo)為(wei)下半年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)第一(yi)個月,受(shou)銀行半年(nian)(nian)清算的(de)(de)影(ying)響,廣東地(di)區(qu)下游資金明(ming)顯偏緊,采購需求稀少(shao),在(zai)另一(yi)方(fang)面(mian),部(bu)分持貨(huo)商出(chu)貨(huo)積極性較(jiao)高(gao),加之華東華南(nan)兩(liang)地(di)價差(cha)維持高(gao)位,導致了(le)(le)買華東拋華南(nan)的(de)(de)套利(li)盤增(zeng)加,廣東市場流通貨(huo)源(yuan)較(jiao)為(wei)充(chong)裕.期現(xian)價差(cha)及兩(liang)地(di)價差(cha)維持較(jiao)寬水(shui)平令持貨(huo)商出(chu)貨(huo)積極性偏低,對現(xian)貨(huo)形成了(le)(le)適當的(de)(de)支(zhi)撐.另外烏魯(lu)木齊局蘭(lan)新線了(le)(le)墩-十三(san)間房(fang)間水(shui)害影(ying)響,發運(yun)略有(you)影(ying)響,也將支(zhi)撐現(xian)貨(huo)價格.

    近(jin)期(qi)國(guo)內各地(di)廢鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格小(xiao)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)上(shang)漲(zhang),廢鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)亮線最(zui)(zui)低價(jia)(jia)(jia)達到(dao)(dao)11600元(yuan)/噸(dun),最(zui)(zui)高(gao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)11800元(yuan)/噸(dun),上(shang)月均價(jia)(jia)(jia)在11678元(yuan)/噸(dun),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)28元(yuan)/噸(dun),漲(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)在0.24%.廢鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)合金門窗料最(zui)(zui)低價(jia)(jia)(jia)達到(dao)(dao)9900元(yuan)/噸(dun),最(zui)(zui)高(gao)價(jia)(jia)(jia)10200元(yuan)/噸(dun),上(shang)月均價(jia)(jia)(jia)在10104元(yuan)/噸(dun),環(huan)(huan)比(bi)(bi)上(shang)漲(zhang)474元(yuan)/噸(dun),漲(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)為4.92%.近(jin)期(qi)廢鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)整體貨(huo)源偏(pian)緊,利潤(run)(run)空間有(you)(you)限.魏橋、嘉潤(run)(run)等大型鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)企減產令商(shang)家對供給側改革預(yu)期(qi)看好,另(ling)外受環(huan)(huan)保檢查(cha)(cha)影響(xiang),冶煉(lian)廠(chang)產能有(you)(you)所減少(shao),廢鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)市(shi)場缺貨(huo)較為嚴(yan)重拉動(dong)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格小(xiao)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)上(shang)漲(zhang).淡季效(xiao)應、環(huan)(huan)保檢查(cha)(cha)因素對廢鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)起(qi)到(dao)(dao)一定制(zhi)約作(zuo)用,因此(ci)預(yu)計(ji)七月份廢鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)市(shi)場價(jia)(jia)(jia)格將在鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)行業淡季下小(xiao)幅(fu)(fu)(fu)下挫100-200元(yuan)/噸(dun).

    截(jie)止到上月(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)底(di)(di),國內鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)合(he)(he)金錠(ding)國標ADC12均價14059元/噸,較(jiao)5月(yue)(yue)下(xia)跌(die)46元/噸,環比下(xia)跌(die)0.33%,從價格來看鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)合(he)(he)金錠(ding)近(jin)期呈(cheng)現小(xiao)幅下(xia)跌(die)走(zou)勢.因(yin)環保(bao)檢查力(li)度(du)仍有(you)增無(wu)減,山(shan)東(dong)地區環保(bao)力(li)度(du)有(you)加大(da)跡象,7個傳輸通道城市(shi)(shi)將成為未來檢查重(zhong)點.據(ju)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)融網統計,在開(kai)工(gong)率方面,截(jie)止到上月(yue)(yue)月(yue)(yue)底(di)(di),鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)合(he)(he)金錠(ding)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)開(kai)工(gong)率整(zheng)體呈(cheng)現下(xia)降趨(qu)勢.全國有(you)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)資質的(de)再生(sheng)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)合(he)(he)金錠(ding)企業(ye)開(kai)工(gong)率為63%,但小(xiao)型(xing)冶(ye)煉廠開(kai)工(gong)率僅(jin)維(wei)持(chi)在20%左右.河(he)北廊坊、保(bao)定、山(shan)東(dong)、河(he)南長(chang)葛等多地小(xiao)冶(ye)煉被(bei)取締(di)掉或者進行大(da)面積整(zheng)改,全部(bu)上環保(bao)設備,冶(ye)煉產(chan)(chan)品不(bu)能冒(mao)煙,導(dao)致廢(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)易拉罐和油件機鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)不(bu)再是(shi)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)合(he)(he)金錠(ding)企業(ye)的(de)采購對(dui)象.目前廢(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)缺貨導(dao)致冶(ye)煉廠原材料采購受阻,短期看來六月(yue)(yue)淡(dan)季效應并不(bu)明(ming)顯.但隨著七月(yue)(yue)開(kai)始,廢(fei)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)貨源充(chong)足后,將會發現冶(ye)煉廠需求的(de)實質性下(xia)降.

    近期通過對15家山(shan)東鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)型(xing)(xing)(xing)材(cai)企(qi)(qi)業的(de)調研發現(xian),年(nian)(nian)產量在(zai)(zai)10萬(wan)噸(dun)以(yi)上(shang)的(de)大(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)企(qi)(qi)業開工(gong)(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)71%左(zuo)右,環比上(shang)漲3%;年(nian)(nian)產量5-10萬(wan)噸(dun)的(de)中型(xing)(xing)(xing)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)加工(gong)(gong)企(qi)(qi)業開工(gong)(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)46%左(zuo)右,環比下跌2%;年(nian)(nian)產量1-5萬(wan)噸(dun)的(de)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)加工(gong)(gong)企(qi)(qi)業開工(gong)(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)15%左(zuo)右,環比下跌3%.從開工(gong)(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)我們可以(yi)看(kan)出鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)型(xing)(xing)(xing)材(cai)企(qi)(qi)業開工(gong)(gong)較(jiao)之前有小(xiao)幅(fu)(fu)下降,中小(xiao)型(xing)(xing)(xing)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)企(qi)(qi)業開工(gong)(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)小(xiao)幅(fu)(fu)下降,環保仍(reng)是目前鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)型(xing)(xing)(xing)材(cai)企(qi)(qi)業的(de)主要壓力,中小(xiao)型(xing)(xing)(xing)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)型(xing)(xing)(xing)材(cai)企(qi)(qi)業目前多家企(qi)(qi)業禁止采(cai)購帶漆鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)合(he)金廢料.大(da)型(xing)(xing)(xing)企(qi)(qi)業小(xiao)幅(fu)(fu)上(shang)漲,但幅(fu)(fu)度較(jiao)小(xiao).2017年(nian)(nian)下半年(nian)(nian)我國樓市(shi)將(jiang)會在(zai)(zai)"五(wu)限"政策的(de)影響下由(you)一(yi)二(er)線(xian)(xian)城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)轉(zhuan)向三四線(xian)(xian)城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi).三四線(xian)(xian)城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)的(de)房(fang)價(jia)仍(reng)有望上(shang)漲,也會成為品牌房(fang)地(di)產企(qi)(qi)業擴(kuo)大(da)規模的(de)理想之地(di),到時,鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)型(xing)(xing)(xing)材(cai)銷售也將(jiang)從一(yi)二(er)線(xian)(xian)城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)分擔(dan)一(yi)部分向三四線(xian)(xian)城(cheng)(cheng)市(shi)轉(zhuan)移.因(yin)此(ci),后期鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)型(xing)(xing)(xing)材(cai)開工(gong)(gong)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)維持低(di)位運行,淡季維持在(zai)(zai)7-8月(yue)份.同時,通過對市(shi)場(chang)狀況的(de)綜合(he)考慮,預(yu)計(ji)鋁(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)價(jia)將(jiang)在(zai)(zai)本(ben)月(yue)出現(xian)小(xiao)幅(fu)(fu)下降趨(qu)勢.