據(ju)了解(jie)(jie),近(jin)期行(xing)業(ye)(ye)事故頻(pin)出(chu),使得(de)鋁(lv)(lv)棒(bang)(bang)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)這(zhe)塊受(shou)(shou)到(dao)了極大的(de)影(ying)響(xiang),已(yi)出(chu)現較大規模(mo)的(de)停產(chan)(chan)潮(chao).7月21號,通(tong)遼霍(huo)煤鴻(hong)駿(jun)下(xia)游多家(jia)(jia)鋁(lv)(lv)棒(bang)(bang)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)因(yin)環保(bao)資質不全(quan),要求停產(chan)(chan)補(bu)全(quan)手續(xu),6家(jia)(jia)鋁(lv)(lv)棒(bang)(bang)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)有5家(jia)(jia)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)被迫停產(chan)(chan),這(zhe)5家(jia)(jia)企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)超過1000噸(dun)/天(tian)鋁(lv)(lv)棒(bang)(bang)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)量(liang),持續(xu)時(shi)間(jian)可能長達近(jin)2個月,受(shou)(shou)此影(ying)響(xiang),東北(bei)和華(hua)北(bei)市場(chang)鋁(lv)(lv)棒(bang)(bang)供應量(liang)將(jiang)會相應減少(shao),但(dan)同時(shi)霍(huo)煤鴻(hong)駿(jun)的(de)鋁(lv)(lv)液銷售(shou)相應減少(shao),鑄錠生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)增加(jia).7月20日,河(he)南焦(jiao)作地區(qu)受(shou)(shou)暴雨侵襲(xi),焦(jiao)作萬(wan)(wan)(wan)方(fang)電(dian)解(jie)(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)廠區(qu)遭受(shou)(shou)山(shan)洪襲(xi)擊,43萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)電(dian)解(jie)(jie)鋁(lv)(lv)產(chan)(chan)能僅有小部分沒(mei)有受(shou)(shou)到(dao)重大影(ying)響(xiang).據(ju)了解(jie)(jie),焦(jiao)作萬(wan)(wan)(wan)方(fang)下(xia)游有多家(jia)(jia)鋁(lv)(lv)水(shui)加(jia)工企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye),雖然鋁(lv)(lv)棒(bang)(bang)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)規模(mo)普遍(bian)偏小,但(dan)數量(liang)眾多,由于生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)恢復時(shi)間(jian)較長,我們預計將(jiang)有近(jin)3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)噸(dun)鋁(lv)(lv)棒(bang)(bang)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)受(shou)(shou)影(ying)響(xiang).

    除了上述個地區(qu)環保審查和自然災(zai)害以(yi)外(wai),也(ye)有個別鋁(lv)(lv)棒(bang)廠(chang)已(yi)經減(jian)產(chan)(chan)停(ting)產(chan)(chan)一(yi)部(bu)(bu)分.河南神火周(zhou)邊匯金源鋁(lv)(lv)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)承包(bao)合同到(dao)期,原定日(ri)供鋁(lv)(lv)水(shui)180噸(dun)規(gui)模減(jian)至90噸(dun),早前(qian)經鋁(lv)(lv)廠(chang)調(diao)劑周(zhou)邊一(yi)家鋁(lv)(lv)合金電(dian)纜企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)使(shi)用,但目前(qian)河南神火鑄造(zao)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)線已(yi)檢修完成(cheng),減(jian)供鋁(lv)(lv)水(shui)已(yi)轉為(wei)鋁(lv)(lv)錠(ding)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan).據(ju)下游企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)透(tou)露,目前(qian)鋁(lv)(lv)棒(bang)市(shi)場低迷,可(ke)能遭遇持續虧損,將(jiang)與(yu)鋁(lv)(lv)廠(chang)協調(diao)階段性停(ting)產(chan)(chan).6月(yue)25日(ri),西部(bu)(bu)水(shui)電(dian)下游兩家企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)慶豐和萬康(kang)也(ye)是(shi)受市(shi)場影(ying)響,減(jian)少了鋁(lv)(lv)水(shui)采購,其(qi)中萬康(kang)鋁(lv)(lv)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)1萬余噸(dun)鋁(lv)(lv)棒(bang)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)已(yi)被迫(po)停(ting)產(chan)(chan),西部(bu)(bu)水(shui)電(dian)鑄造(zao)車間因此需每天(tian)要消(xiao)化將(jiang)近(jin)1200噸(dun)左右的(de)鋁(lv)(lv)液.此外(wai),蘭州新(xin)海天(tian)鋁(lv)(lv)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)已(yi)于7月(yue)初(chu)停(ting)止(zhi)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan),據(ju)悉(xi)將(jiang)調(diao)整(zheng)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)工(gong)藝生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)太(tai)陽能棒(bang),不(bu)過恢復時間未定;包(bao)頭希(xi)望、安順(shun)力(li)美(mei)等(deng)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)由于自身是(shi)電(dian)解鋁(lv)(lv)廠(chang),可(ke)靈活調(diao)整(zheng)鋁(lv)(lv)錠(ding)和鋁(lv)(lv)棒(bang)鑄造(zao)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan),不(bu)過據(ju)我(wo)們了解,這兩家企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)也(ye)出(chu)現了鋁(lv)(lv)棒(bang)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)減(jian)少,轉而生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)鋁(lv)(lv)錠(ding),其(qi)中安順(shun)力(li)美(mei)已(yi)從前(qian)期滿產(chan)(chan)1萬余噸(dun)減(jian)至6000噸(dun)/月(yue),包(bao)頭希(xi)望提前(qian)檢修影(ying)響近(jin)2000噸(dun)/月(yue)鋁(lv)(lv)棒(bang)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan).

    綜合上述企(qi)業鋁(lv)棒(bang)生(sheng)產(chan)量(liang),筆者預(yu)計7月(yue)份(fen)將(jiang)(jiang)有6-8萬噸鋁(lv)棒(bang)生(sheng)產(chan)受各種因素(su)減量(liang)生(sheng)產(chan),減產(chan)規模將(jiang)(jiang)近10%,除焦作萬方鋁(lv)廠(chang)受影響(xiang)以外,其余部分均將(jiang)(jiang)轉(zhuan)化為鋁(lv)錠生(sheng)產(chan).通過我(wo)們從鋁(lv)棒(bang)廠(chang)溝通了解,棒(bang)廠(chang)和(he)鋁(lv)廠(chang)鋁(lv)水供應合同中(zhong)存在著(zhu)10%左右浮(fu)動空間,鋁(lv)棒(bang)市(shi)場實際減量(liang)恐不(bu)止上述幾萬噸,但(dan)目前來看(kan)仍只(zhi)是階段性減停產(chan),我(wo)們預(yu)計8月(yue)份(fen)將(jiang)(jiang)有更多企(qi)業加入到(dao)這(zhe)一隊伍中(zhong),而新增和(he)新投產(chan)企(qi)業8月(yue)份(fen)基本不(bu)會(hui)出現.