9月(yue)29日,北京(jing)—中(zhong)(zhong)誠(cheng)(cheng)信國際(ji)信用評級(ji)有限責任公司(下稱(cheng)"中(zhong)(zhong)誠(cheng)(cheng)信國際(ji)")今(jin)日發布《2015年(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)國鋁行(xing)(xing)業信用展(zhan)望(wang)(wang)》,給(gei)予鋁行(xing)(xing)業負面展(zhan)望(wang)(wang).中(zhong)(zhong)誠(cheng)(cheng)信國際(ji)認(ren)為(wei),電解(jie)(jie)(jie)鋁屬于高耗能行(xing)(xing)業,面對價格持續下跌、行(xing)(xing)業虧損(sun)面逐步(bu)擴大的(de)現狀,我國電解(jie)(jie)(jie)鋁行(xing)(xing)業的(de)競爭已成(cheng)為(wei)用電成(cheng)本和(he)用電模式的(de)競爭,電力成(cheng)本高低成(cheng)為(wei)決定電解(jie)(jie)(jie)鋁生產企業是否具備競爭力的(de)關鍵(jian).

    目前(qian),我國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解鋁生產(chan)企(qi)業用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模式主(zhu)要(yao)分(fen)為網(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模式、直(zhi)購電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模式以及(ji)自備電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)模式三(san)種.網(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)是(shi)最為傳統的(de)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模式,近年來(lai)國(guo)內(nei)網(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價格(ge)始終維持在(zai)較高位,網(wang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模式的(de)鋁企(qi)抵御產(chan)品價格(ge)波(bo)動風險的(de)能力較弱,在(zai)行業內(nei)競爭(zheng)力較弱,面臨較大淘汰壓(ya)力.近年來(lai)部分(fen)地方政(zheng)府大力推(tui)動電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)解鋁企(qi)業采(cai)用(yong)直(zhi)購電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模式(以直(zhi)接(jie)交易為主(zhu)的(de)市場化用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)機制),對企(qi)業生產(chan)成本的(de)下降、經(jing)營業績的(de)改善和(he)整體(ti)競爭(zheng)力的(de)提(ti)高有明顯的(de)積極(ji)影(ying)響(xiang).

    除了(le)直購電(dian)之外,近(jin)年(nian)來擁有自備電(dian)廠(chang)的(de)電(dian)解鋁(lv)(lv)企業保(bao)持了(le)較強的(de)盈(ying)利能力(li),在鋁(lv)(lv)行業景氣度持續(xu)下(xia)行時(shi)體現出(chu)(chu)突出(chu)(chu)的(de)競爭優(you)勢(shi).中誠(cheng)信(xin)國際(ji)分析師(shi)劉翌晨指出(chu)(chu):"電(dian)力(li)成本的(de)高(gao)企以及(ji)鋁(lv)(lv)價(jia)持續(xu)走(zou)低使得(de)國內電(dian)解鋁(lv)(lv)冶煉企業毛(mao)利率(lv)大幅(fu)下(xia)降,盈(ying)利空(kong)間被擠壓,具(ju)有自備電(dian)廠(chang)或具(ju)有電(dian)力(li)成本優(you)勢(shi)地區的(de)電(dian)解鋁(lv)(lv)冶煉企業競爭優(you)勢(shi)得(de)到進一步凸顯."

    面對(dui)下游需求增(zeng)速放緩、鋁(lv)(lv)價持(chi)續低(di)迷(mi)以及生產(chan)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)高(gao)企等困難,目前傳(chuan)統電(dian)(dian)解鋁(lv)(lv)生產(chan)企業正(zheng)逐步(bu)向產(chan)業鏈上游擴張,從資源(yuan)和能源(yuan)入手實(shi)施改(gai)革,發(fa)展"煤—電(dian)(dian)—鋁(lv)(lv)"一(yi)體化(hua)產(chan)業鏈(自備(bei)(bei)電(dian)(dian)廠模式).同時,新增(zeng)產(chan)能逐步(bu)向電(dian)(dian)力成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)較(jiao)低(di)的西(xi)部地區(qu)轉移.中誠信國際認為,電(dian)(dian)力成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)本(ben)高(gao)低(di)已成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)為決定我國電(dian)(dian)解鋁(lv)(lv)生產(chan)企業是(shi)否具備(bei)(bei)競爭力的關鍵因素.