從2015年上半(ban)年鋁(lv)工業運行(xing)(xing)(xing)情況來看,生產(chan)運行(xing)(xing)(xing)總體平穩,且鋁(lv)冶(ye)煉(lian)(lian)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業扭(niu)虧為盈(ying)、鋁(lv)壓(ya)延加(jia)工行(xing)(xing)(xing)業維持盈(ying)利,但鋁(lv)冶(ye)煉(lian)(lian)投資有所回升,鋁(lv)價波動(dong)下(xia)行(xing)(xing)(xing).可見,鋁(lv)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業供應(ying)壓(ya)力未減,短期內實質(zhi)性轉好(hao)的壓(ya)力猶(you)存.

    鋁行業雖總(zong)體保持了平穩運行態勢,但主要(yao)經濟指標回升基(ji)礎依(yi)然薄弱,下行壓(ya)力(li)依(yi)然較(jiao)大.主要(yao)表現(xian)在(zai):產(chan)(chan)(chan)量屢(lv)創(chuang)新高,供(gong)(gong)應壓(ya)力(li)加大.2015年(nian)(nian)5月(yue),國(guo)內電(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)鋁產(chan)(chan)(chan)量267萬(wan)噸(dun),創(chuang)歷史單月(yue)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量新高;1~5月(yue)累(lei)計產(chan)(chan)(chan)量1282萬(wan)噸(dun),同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)10.3%,增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)幅較(jiao)去年(nian)(nian)同期(qi)相比提高2.3個百分點.此外(wai),鋁冶煉(lian)行業(包(bao)括電(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)鋁、氧化(hua)鋁、再生鋁)完成固定資(zi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)投(tou)資(zi)繼2013年(nian)(nian)、2014年(nian)(nian)連續兩年(nian)(nian)呈下滑后,2015年(nian)(nian)1~5月(yue)出現(xian)回升,同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)11.6%,達(da)169億元.數據表明,2015年(nian)(nian)以來(lai),國(guo)內電(dian)(dian)解(jie)(jie)鋁企業增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)幅度(du)要(yao)大于減產(chan)(chan)(chan),供(gong)(gong)應壓(ya)力(li)加大,化(hua)解(jie)(jie)產(chan)(chan)(chan)能過剩(sheng)矛(mao)盾短期(qi)難以消除.

    由(you)于(yu)國內電(dian)解鋁(lv)產量(liang)持(chi)(chi)續(xu)擴張,供應壓力(li)較大(da),且國內需(xu)求表現不佳,鋁(lv)價(jia)(jia)延續(xu)跌(die)(die)勢,現貨(huo)鋁(lv)價(jia)(jia)維持(chi)(chi)貼水狀態.2015年上半年,滬(hu)鋁(lv)3個月期貨(huo)均(jun)價(jia)(jia)為(wei)13012元/噸(dun),同(tong)比下(xia)降4.3%;現貨(huo)均(jun)價(jia)(jia)為(wei)12906元/噸(dun),同(tong)比下(xia)降4.1%.其中,滬(hu)鋁(lv)現貨(huo)價(jia)(jia)格最低跌(die)(die)破(po)12500元/噸(dun),較年中最高價(jia)(jia)13455元/噸(dun)下(xia)跌(die)(die)7.6%.當(dang)前鋁(lv)價(jia)(jia)位(wei)于(yu)近20年來(lai)的(de)歷史低位(wei),國內大(da)多數(shu)電(dian)解鋁(lv)企(qi)業已進入成本價(jia)(jia)格倒(dao)掛狀態,且下(xia)行壓力(li)仍較大(da).